On the 25th of September 2017 the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan voted for independence by a margin of 93%. Many in the west see the situation here as clear with clear and vocal support for many for Kurdish independence however in reality the situation is a lot more complicated than the simplistic picture often presented in the west of a mostly moderate, westernised and secular people striving for independence.
The Kurds are an ethnic group of around 30 to 35 million people divided between the countries of Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey. For centuries Kurdistan was controlled by outside powers and rather than assimilating like many of the surrounding people groups that have long since been lost to history the Kurds remained very culturally distinct from all those that surrounded them.
As a result of this during the late 19th century Kurdish nationalism emerged as a moment where many Kurdish intellectuals sought independence from the Ottoman and Persian Empires. During the 20th century with increasing repression of the Kurds in post-Ottoman states Kurdish nationalism became an internationally known force, mostly due to the war between a Communist Kurdish terrorist organisation called the PKK and the Turkish government. At the same time as this was beginning around 100,000 Kurds were killed in a genocidal campaign by the Iraq under Saddam Hussein in one of the defining moments for Iraqi Kurdistan. Just two years later a combined British – American air campaign in Northern Iraq forced Saddam’s troops to withdraw from the region and the Kurdish Regional Government was established. Over the next two and a half decades the KRG (also know as Iraqi Kurdistan) would become a relatively democratic and somewhat stable region that stands in stark contrast to the chaos in the rest of Iraq. This is where our story begins.
Iraqi Kurdistan has always been involved in wider Kurdish politics to a greater or lesser degree having significant influence over the Kurdish populations in the surrounding territories and frequent disagreements as well as occasional alliances with the ruling governments, this is where the first problem with Kurdish independence in Iraq is found. The “Free life party of Kurdistan”, a terrorist group that has been actively fighting the Iranian regime has been able to hide its forces across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan from where they can launch attacks into Iran. As a result of this in the weeks leading up to the Kurdish referendum Iran closed the border with Kurdistan and moved thousands of troops into the border area. In the past when threatened Iran has proved itself more than capable of cross border attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan as seen for instance in 2007.
Furthermore the “Kurdistan Workers Party” or PKK which is a Kurdish far left terrorist group mostly involved with fighting the Turkish government has been able to set up training camps in the far north of Iraqi Kurdistan in which their fighters are relatively safe from Turkey. In order to address the problem of terrorists hiding just beyond their border Turkey has launched a series of high profile attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan with the most famous instance being in 2008 in an operation reportedly involving thousands of Turkish troops meant to flush out PKK strongholds in the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan. In addition Turkey has invaded the Kurdish breakaway region of Rojava in northern Syria during operation euphrates shield.
The fact that two of the largest regional players are directly threatened by an independent Iraqi Kurdistan should be worrying to all as with the significant tension caused by the Saudi-Iran proxy war there is a small but significant chance that Kurdistan could become the flashpoint for a regional war. However portraying Iraqi Kurdistan as a terrorist sanctuary is inaccurate, the KRG has itself conducted military action against PJAK and the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party is politically opposed to the PKK however due to the combination of political weakness and a lack of ability these terrorist groups have still been able to hide from Turkey and Iran in Iraqi Kurdistan. This situation is likely to be exacerbated in a potentially independent Kurdistan due to the lack of any influence from the central Iraqi government and this inability to prevent terrorists from sheltering in the region brings up a key problem with Kurdish independence.
However another key problem is the actual question that was asked during the Iraqi Kurdish referendum, while it is often assumed in the western media that the question asked solely relates to Iraqi Kurdistan and therefore the impact on other Kurdish majority regions in Iran, Turkey and Syria will be secondary in reality the question asked translates as “Do you wish the [Iraqi] Kurdish Region and the Kurdish areas outside the administration of the region to become an independent state?” thereby directly challenging the rights of the Iranian, Turkish and to a lesser extent (due to the war) Syrian governments to government the Kurdish peoples under their jurisdiction. Because of this it is worried by many that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan could cause increased instability in Iran and Turkey and any attempt by Kurdistan to annex significant region of Turkey and Iran could spiral out of control very quickly due to the often extreme nature of the nationalism of the Kurds, Turks and to a lesser extent the Iranians.
There is also the problem of the minorities within Kurdistan, Iraqi Kurdistan contains the largest concentration of Iraq’s 1,500,000 Christians and there are significant worries about the potential status of Christians within an independent Kurdistan seeing as there has been a lack of political will to assist Iraqi-Kurdistani Christians in the aftermath of the Anfal and Nineveh genocides. As well as attempts to move Kurds into Assyrian-Christian majority areas in order to alter the demographics of those regions and secure Kurdish rule, those who have opposed this have been subject to arbitrary arrest and illegal detention as well as threats of violence. However the real worry is that the Kurds will attempt to expel large numbers of Arabs who were settled by the Saddam regime in the Kurdish region as well as possibly Turkmen from the Kirkuk region. Similar policies to this have been enacted in the breakaway Kurdish Rojava region of Syria.
In addition there the debate over exactly what is Kurdistan. During the war against ISIS in Iraq the Kurds proved themselves to be the only effective force at the beginning of the conflict and were thus able to take over a significant amount of land previously occupied by ISIS, rather than hand this land over to the Iraqi government the KRG has attempted to integrate it. This is largely because the KRG claims a large amount of territory as Kurdish that is does not administer and treated the war against ISIS as an opportunity to seize control over its territorial claims. As such the Kurdish independence referendum was also held in the occupied areas and the KRG plans to take these areas with it during independence.
The last thing to take into account in regards to the Kurdish referendum in Iraq is that it may not have been about independence, president Barzani is not obligated to pursue independence immediately under the terms of the referendum and may use it for domestic political reasons to bolster support for his KDP party in the November 1st elections that will be held in Iraqi Kurdistan. Seeing as Barzani has often been accused of attempting to take dictatorial powers in Iraqi Kurdistan it should be a concern to all that this referendum could result a surge of popularity for the KDP to an extent where they can size semi permanent power.
All this said however it is important to recognise that we in the west should have no say in the future of Kurdistan and that under international law the right of the Kurdish people to self determination should be respected and given the 93% vote in favour of independence it is likely that Iraqi Kurdistan will be independent no matter what happens. The point of this article is merely to rebut the simplistic notion that this referendum is just about an oppressed people seeking freedom and show the more complicated political realities.
The Optimistic Outlook 